Baster's Sports Spin : CBSSports.com Blogs

The Bullpen: What of it?

Sun, 15 May 2011 12:09:40 EDT

There's no getting around it: the Orioles bullpen has been terrible this year. Its 4.92 ERA is good for 26th in MLB, and at times it has seemed like every relief pitcher was struggling simultaneously. Only five clubs in MLB have allowed more walks from their bullpen. The .258 BAA is 24th in MLB. I do, however, see reasons for optimism in this area as the season progresses. It may never be turned to the strength many thought it might be, but it could and should be a serviceable unit over the long haul. Why do I feel this way? Well, it might get long and circle back on itself, but I think my reasoning is sound.

It really starts, though, with this: The Orioles bullpen is sixth in MLB in innings pitched. After watching years of this team feature a bullpen with decent arms that starts getting shelled at some point in the season, I have come to realize more and more that, for the most part, to find a good bullpen one should look where the starting pitching is best, and where that starting pitching is lasting the longest. Obviously it's not going to be a 1:1 tradeoff, but at a glance the trend does seem to more or less hold. Why is that? Because for the most part, pitchers are in a bullpen because, compared to other MLB pitchers, they are average to bad. There are, of course, exceptions - but almost all of those are closers or setup men. Middle relief is middle relief because those guys aren't very good. Given a small sample size (fewer innings) they are more likely to have better numbers than if they pitch more often.

If you've thrown a pitch for the '09 Orioles

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:59:09 EDT

And I don't get lazy and stop halfway though...Then I'm about to have some words of one kind or another for you. I'm gonna cite your key stats, tell you what I think you're doing right and wrong, and then say what your value to the organization is going forward. Be warned: I'm only pleased with a few of you. So, without further adeiu, and in order of innings pitched:

Jeremy Guthrie, you've pitched to a 5.20 ERA and a 1.4 WHIP, and that's not something I expected out of the guy who was second to Johan Santana in QS over the two prior seasons coming in. Your 19 HR allowed scare me. However, you still find the strike zone more often than not to the tune of a 2-1 K/BB ratio. You're trying too hard, something that's been thoroughly analyzed by fans at this site. You try to make every pitch the perfect pitch; consequently when you miss it's a meatball and it lands over the fence. Other than all the HR, you look like the ace I remember, so I think we need to keep you in the organization for at least a few more years. Your arm comes cheap compared to similar hurlers, and frankly you're our only veteran.

Breaking Down the Birds: the Base on Balls

Thu, 21 May 2009 22:11:25 EDT

This decade, most years the Orioles have been among the leaders in MLB in issuing the base on balls almost every year, it seems. They've also been below .500 for that whole span. I thought there was certainly a correlation there. That the free passes were a major contributor to high ERAs and thus losses. All of this seemed a natural thing to assume. It seemed like a walk was scoring and breaking the team's back every night...but th evidence of this year seems to point in the opposite direction. This year, the Orioles are issuing many fewer walks, and are in fact among the better staffs in that category. Yet they remain in last place, and in May are already quite a few games below .500. Do walks really not matter as much as I'd thought, or is there some other variable that I've yet to discover offsetting the improvement in walks? O's fans, let's investigate.

No dog, or 'Cat, in the fight but...

Wed, 01 Apr 2009 10:06:05 EDT

My thoughts on the Calipari-to-Kentucky business:

Coach Cal is a great coach going to a great program, so in that sense it's a good fit. Calipari does, however, have a past with a few question marks (in terms of rules violations) and has a distinct personality that I'm not sure translates perfectly to UK. The thing is, when you're a premier program your list of acceptable hires is short to begin with, so if you can agree to terms with a guy like Calipari you have to get it done.

What does it mean for Kentucky?

Honestly, it's difficult to say. It should bring stability and a new approach, on and off the court. It probably brings in some players Kentucky hadn't counted on that could go a long way toward getting right back in the tournament and doing some damage. But part of all this depends on what it means for Memphis.

Maybe "power league" teams are just better

Fri, 20 Mar 2009 13:50:37 EDT

This year's NCAA Tournament Field features only 4 at-large bids from non power conferences. It's created a bit of a stir, including some comparisons to football's BCS system. Dick Vitale and Michael Wilbon are two experts of note to cry foul. While I agree in general terms that the little guy gets snubbed, this year I don't think that many more than four "mid-majors" deserved an at-large selection...and honestly it was quite hard to find 65 worthy teams, period. One also must consider that in this format, they supposedly get the best team from every conference. While the field may not contain the 40th or 50th best team (see Creighton, St. Mary's, San Diego State) it will contain teams somewhere around the 250th best (see Morehead State, Alabama State) to compensate. Now, of course when there's a conference tournament upset, the field may wind up with the second-best, or even the eighth best or so, team from some leagues while missing out on the best...but that's a product of the automatic bid rules and not the Selection Committee. I'm one who advocates modifying, rather than discarding, the automatic bids but that's a tangential point. A second argument for the little guys is that Memphis deserved one of the one seeds for being the only team with 3 or fewer losses. As we'll see later, I think Memphis was seeded exactly correctly and if anything is less talented than the best of the 3 seeds.

Revisiting BE predictions and tourney preview

Wed, 11 Mar 2009 18:17:14 EDT

Well, I previewd the Big East season what seems both like eons ago and yesterday. So how did I do? Am I an idot, a genius, or something in between? In other words, should you take anything I say about the Big East tournament? Well, it's time to grade myself!

What I said:

Louisville (NCAA) They're my pick thanks to an easier schedule than the Huskies

Connecticut (NCAA) They have the most talent, but a very rough road.

Building a pitching staff in Baltimore

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 14:41:07 EST

So, entering Spring training the Orioles have two sure answers for their opening day 5-man rotation and a wealth of solid options in the bullpen. What they have beyond that is an astounding number of question marks, and it's hard to see them being immediately competitive (or even climbing out of last place this season) because of that. However, it seems to me that Andy MacPhail and the rest of the front office are doing exactly what they need to to get better in the long run. They have solidified all of the positions on the field and spots in the lineup, right down to the bench and acquired a wealth of young (and not-so-young) arms to experiment with. Now the Orioles will have a year or two of evaluation, to hone things down to a solid starting staff of the future, and 2 or 3 years from now will be the time to supplement all this great young talent with a big Free Agent signing or three to get them over the hump. This is all, of course, provided they evaluate the talent they have properly and bring it through the organization at the right pace and with the right mindset. With some coaching staff adjustments and a trend toward more control, the O's are in a very good position to do that.

Number 4 Pittsburgh visits Number 1 Connecticut

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 10:16:31 EST

What a game scheduled for tonight. Jerome Dyson's injury takes just a little bit off the luster of this game, but this is two teams deservedly in the top 5 full of players with superlatives going toe-to-toe for favorite status is one of the toughest leagues ever. The winner probably gets a stranglehold on a 1 seed in March, and heck, the loser stays in line for one provided they can split the two games these teams will play. So how will it turn out? It's so close that a lot of things need to be considered. Here's how the matchups work 1-5:

PG LeVance Fields versus AJ Price

I give the edge to Fields, because he leads the nation in Assist to Turnover ratio and is on an incredibly hot streak (56 assists to 6 TOs in the last 5 games) He has had 13 or more assists in three of those. Price is a little bit better scorer, though, so it's not a really huge edge.

Final thoughts on the upcoming Big East season

Thu, 11 Dec 2008 2:19:06 EST

Now that every team has been previewed, it's time for me to collect my thoughts. This league is probably one of the toughest in history to predict, but I'm going to take a shot at it. First I'll arrange the teams by tiers, then I'll project the finish, and finally I'll have some thoughts on how the conference teams will do in the preseason tournaments. I had about 80% of this finished when my browser crashed before, so this is more hurried and probably has dropped in quality; apologies for that.

I believe that the nine-team-in projection is not at all far-fetched, and that as many as 12 might see some postseason play or other. It will all depend on nonconference performance and the new conference tourney format. I'm excited for the first Big East games tonight, starting at 7 PM, and can't wait for the season in general. Now, on to business...

Big East Preview 16, West Virginia Mountaineers

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 11:17:24 EST

Like the state itself, the Mountaineers usually get no love until after the fact. Every year it seems the coaches pick them to finish several spots below where they finish. Every year they are better than the prognosticators say they are. They are well-coached and there is some new talent there to replace the old. This year, the coaches picked them ninth. Can they best the mark set for them yet again? See what I have to say below. 2007-2008 Results:

24-10 Overall, 11-7 Big East (6th)

Lost in Big East tournament semifinal round (Georgetown)

Eliminated in Sweet Sixteen by Xavier

Big East Preview 15, Villanova Wildcats

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 11:11:33 EST

Villanova is one of many Big East teams garnering a lot of preseason attention. Returning the top seven (and nine of the top ten) scorers from a Sweet Sixteen team will do that. Of course, the critics say 'Nova benefited from a weak slate of opponents (until Kansas), a sentiment with at least a small measure of credibilty. A lot of experienced, battle-tested talent will go a long way, though, so good things are very possible for this team. They expect to make some noise in the conference and in the postseason. How loud will it be? 2007-2008 Results:

20-12 Overall, 9-9 Big East (8th)

Eliminated 2nd Round of Big East tournament (Georgetown)

Lost in Sweet Sixteen to eventual champion Kansas

Big East Preview 14, Syracuse Orange

Tue, 11 Nov 2008 22:28:42 EST

Here's one of the more interesting cases in the Big East. After two consecutive almost-but-not-quite years when many felt they were snubbed by the selection committee, the Orange return two players from injury but lose one star. Will it be enough to get them into the NCAAs, and maybe the top 25, this time? They'll have to overcome a pretty tough schedule to do so, including a bizarre CBE Classic tournament that features a championship round that apparently doesn't change even if the top-seeded teams lose. Anyone have a better idea how that works? Regardless, here it is. 2007-2008 Results:

19-13 Overall, 9-9 Big East (9th)

Lost 1st round Big East tournament (Villanova)

Eliminated 3rd round of NIT (Massachusetts)

Big East Preview 13, St. John's Red Storm

Tue, 30 Dec 2008 14:45:47 EST

Here is a program with a history of excellence that hasn't been performing of late. They have a good coach in a tough position, and it's a long shot that this season will be much more successful than last. Are there reasons for hope in Jamaica, NY? I think so, but I think the Johnnies will have to hang in there through another rough ride. They get a chance at tournament play in the NIT Season Tip Off, and have plenty of opportunities against ranked teams on the schedule. Even if they have the rough season that's expected, they could spoil the party for someone, or perhaps multiple someones. 2007-2008 Results:

11-19 Overall, 5-13 Big East (14th)

No postseason play

Roster:

Big East Preview 12, South Florida Bulls

Sun, 09 Nov 2008 0:34:02 EST

This may have been the most difficult of these previews to pull together (though Seton Hall was tough too). I started without a ton of knowledge about this team, and all sorts of changes happened to the roster. Some of the new freshmen were listed at some sources and not others, so I had to go figure out what the deal was. A couple of rosters I checked had conflicting information on the two transfers. A bunch of underclassmen were apparently cut from the team. So bear with me while I try to break this one down. Some of my statements may seem brutal. they aren't meant that way, but South Florida is in a tough spot. 2007-2008 Results:

12-19 Overall, 3-15 Big East (15th)

No postseason

Roster:

Big East Preview 11, Seton Hall Pirates

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:19:08 EST

I believe Seton Hall was a better team than they appeared last year. They have a bit of talent. It may be difficult for them to be anything more than "better than they appear" once again in 2008-2009. They are typically an afterthought in the Big East conversation, perhaps especially this year. Will they be able to make people regret that with some surprises? Will they fade to the bottom of the pack, instead? My thoughts may surprise you. 2007-2008 Results:

17-15 Overall, 7-11 Big East (11th)

Eliminated first round Big East tournament (Marquette)

Roster:

Big East Preview 10, Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Sat, 08 Nov 2008 19:34:36 EST

Certainly it will be a stiff battle for Rutgers in conference, perhaps less so with (aside from UNC) a reasonably easy set of ooc games. There isn't anything to say to change the fact that they are in a difficult position. Still, with last year's last place finish, there is room only for improvement, and there are some bright spots. I'm unsure if they are bright enough to say great things for the program, but I think a lot of the future will turn on this season. How big a step are they poised to take? 2007-2008 Results:

11-20 Overall, 3-15 Big East (16th)

No postseason

Roster:

Big East Preview 9, Providence Friars

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:27:25 EST

Providence is drawing a lot of attention as this year's dark horse team, with the return of Sharaud Curry. Now that Cincinnati has taken some hits to its roster, Provy is really the only candidate for that role, because nine other teams are being projected into the NCAA field and the rest of the pack is simply not that talented. Their MO is great guard play without much up front, and it appears that will continue into 2008-2009. They are the kind of team that can get on fire in terms of scoring against almost any defense, and thus are very dangerous. They have a great chance to make an argument for the Big East in the Anaheim Classic. Saint Mary's, Wake Forest, Baylor, and Arizona State are all receiving votes in preseason polls but none is so strong that Providence couldn't upset them. A strong showing, or even a victory, in this tournament by the Big East's supposed tenth strongest team would plant and early and strong image. 2007-2008 Results:

Big East Preview 8, Pittsburgh Panthers

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 17:18:43 EDT

Well, this is the one I've been waiting to do, certainly. There are high expectations in Pittsburgh, with a great group of returning players. Some think this might be Pitt's best chance to crack the Sweet Sixteen finally, but that's something Pitt fans have heard quite a lot the last few seasons. I like what I see, but wild hope is mitigated in my eyes by a lot of unanswered questions. Obviously my bias will show through here, but I have tried to be objective in applying the knowledge I have. 2007-2008 Results:

30-9 Overall, 10-8 Big East (7th)

Won Big East tournament

Eliminated second round NCAAs (Michigan State)

Big East Preview 7, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 12:38:39 EDT

This is another team popping into a lot of people's preseason top ten lists. They probably deserve it, because they return 4 of 5 starters and 7 or the top 8 scorers from a team that won 14 Big East games and 25 overall. Everybody knows about their two stars, but the burning question is whether their supporting cast will be enough to carry them deep into the NCAA tournament. This is a team of lofty expectations in a league with same. How things go for them will turn on the ability of everybody on the roster after Harangody and McAlarney to step up their game a little. 2007-2008 Results:

25-8 Overall, 14-4 Big East (3rd)

Eliminated in second round of Big East tournament (Marquette)

Lost NCAA second round (Washington State)

Big East Preview 6, Marquette Golden Eagles

Tue, 28 Oct 2008 19:16:41 EDT

I can't really talk about Marquette without talking about their coaching change. They replaced an excellent coach with an unproven one. But I am going to leave that largely out of the rest of my preview here, except where I need it to nudge me a little bit toward something, for two reasons: 1) I haven't really talked about coaches in these previews much and 2) my general approach to thoughts on new coaches is to give them the benefit of the doubt for a couple of years. Marquette loses little from an NCAA tournament team, but its road there is a little tougher than the last. What does this say for them? 2007-2008 Results:

25-10 Overall, 11-7 Big East (5th)

Eliminated 3rd round Big East tournament by Pittsburgh

Lost NCAA second round to Stanford

Big East Preview 5, Louisville Cardinals

Thu, 30 Oct 2008 18:12:31 EDT

Another of the preseason favorites in the Big East. I think they're my pick to win the conference regular season (which doesn't necessarily imply that I think they are its best team). There's a lot going on with this team, what with departing players and new faces, a bit of a fiasco wth one now infamous Caracter, and a coach who is ideal to lead a situation like that. Below is my breakdown of why I think they're so good, and what I think their upper and lower limits are. 2007-2008 Results:

27-9 Overall, 14-4 Big East (2nd)

Eliminated in Big East tournament second round by eventual champion Pittsburgh

Elite Eight, lost to North Carolina

Big East Preview 4, Georgetown Hoyas

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 10:47:26 EST

Sorry to those who have actually been reading these. I got a little behind. Hopefully I can pound out one late tonight and get a little more on track. This one is one of the more interesting teams, in the Hoyas. They lost a lot, but are bringing in a very solid recruiting class. Can they hang in the Big East with the new blood? Will the Hibbert loss be as huge as it seems? Where will they finish amid nine or ten teams with real NCAA aspirations?

2007-2008 Results:

28-6 overall, 15-3 Big East (1st)

Lost Big East Championship game to Pittsburgh

Big East Preview 3, DePaul Blue Demons

Thu, 23 Oct 2008 15:52:03 EDT

I will be as forgiving as I can, but his is a not very good team in a powerhouse conference. I have to feel a little bad for the Demons, because they had some succesful seasons, which got them an invite to the expanding Big East. I feel like they are the only school to have not really benefitted from the move. South Floirda has been futile in basketball as well, but at least they built up a pretty good football program from the move. In any case, be forewarned that this preview is less optimistic than the previous two. 2007-2008 Results:

11-19 overall, 6-12 Big East (13th)

No postseason play

Roster:

Big East Preview 2, Connecticut Huskies

Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:26:43 EDT

This one was a little easier, because I'd already done a lot of the research knowing that Connecticut was one of the preseason Big East favorites. This is the team that many think will be the best of that leviathan of a conference, and for good reason. Do I agree? Read and find out. 2007-2008 Results:

24-9 Overall, 13-5 Big East (5th)

Eliminated second round of Big East tournament (by 5 seed West Virginia)

Lost opening round of NCAA tournament (as 4 seed)

Big East Preview 1, Cincinnati Bearcats

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:34:41 EDT

Now that college basketball is practicing for real, I'm analyzing the Big East team by team, alphabetically by school. I'll culminate the whole thing in a preseason ranking of all 16 teams, but I'm holding off on making exact predictions on where each team will finish exactly until I've done all the research on all the rosters. What fans of each team will get is a somewhat impartial (except for Pitt, obviously) view of how things will shape up. The conference is a monster in 2008-2009, so if I think your team isn't going to be in the running it isn't necessarily because I think that team is bad. We open with Cincinnati, a team with a winning history but recent struggles. Will they be all the way back in the '08-'09 season?

Week 6 NFL picks and explanations

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 19:44:37 EDT

The league has finally started to separate itself, and the last two weeks have had some very difficult to predict games. But there are still a ton of teams in the balance (I'm talking to you Dolphins, Saints, and Falcons, among others) and this week could see some more things crystallize. Of course, it could also see some teams slide or drop into that middle ground. Man, October football is great!

Panthers (4-1) at Buccaneers (3-2)

This looks like the game to see this week. These teams are eerily similar. Both can run the ball-with powerful duos instead of one feature back. Both can stop the run. Tampa Bay has the edge on the ground. The Panthers, though, can throw it, and are a little better at stopping the pass. These teams are close. Both, though, have struggled with penalties. The more disciplined team wins this game, and it's easier to be disciplined at home.

Red Sox Nation a myth?

Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:21:47 EDT

I was watching that infamous sports highlight show on that other network this afternoon, and they said "Red Sox Nation. Hank steinbrenner calls it a myth, but the stats say otherwise." They went on to speak of how the Red Sox just set a record for consecutive sellouts, starting in May 2003.

OK, that's cool for them. But I say that this isn't that special, or particularly indicative of a "nation." They have a small ballpark in a populous city. They have been winning - two World Series in the span of the record, in fact. So why is it surprising?

That said, if one considers the definition of nation, simply a large group of people unified by a common ideal or cause who wouldn't be unified otherwise (my paraphrase) then they certainly do have a nation. It is important to remember that "nation" and "country" are not the same thing. Technically, "Red Sox Nation" does not mean Red Sox fans everywhere in the country...it means Red Sox fans anywhere they might happen to be, who share little in common other than being Red Sox fans. I'd say, by that definition, RSN is no myth.

The American League

Sat, 09 Aug 2008 10:41:22 EDT

Nobody is running away with any of the divisions in the American league. The Rays hold the best record, and The Mariners hold the worst. The last place teams are the Yankees, Tigers, and MAriners - all teams that a lot of folks thought could win their respective divisions. It looks pretty topsy-turvy, but the thing is no one has gone crazy and no one has been blown out of the water. Everyone is in their division races, and the biggest gap is 8.5 games between the Angels and Mariners. What is going on?

Some of it can be explained by injury. The Mariners lost a lot of games they might not have with Erik Bedard and J.J. Putz on the field. The Yankees offense has struggled without Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. The same can be said of Detroit, without the help of Dontrelle Wilis, Denny Bautista, and Joel Zumaya. So who's going to turn it around and make a playoff run? Conversely, who's going to drop off the radar in a hurry?

How are the Orioles doing it?

Wed, 28 May 2008 10:59:47 EDT

Well, the Orioles have the ninth best record in baseball right now, and I'm thrilled. I mean, we O's fans feared as bad as a 100-loss season, and didn't expect to rush out of the gates so much as fall out of them on our face. When I look at the stat lines, they say, just like the "preseason paper" that we shouldn't have quite the record we do. Shouldn't be among the worst, but we shouldn't be in the top third either. So why are we doing so well? Timeliness and small things. Mostly, though, I credit the pitching staff for being much better than the numbers might indicate.

In general:

The team ERA is 4.18 (16th), The starters' ERA is 4.55 (20th) and the bullpen ERA is 3.50 (9th). Only the bullpen numbers look very good. The thing is, all three of those numbers actually make things look worse than they have been, especially lately. Despite those ERAs, the staff has compiled 11 Quality Starts (T-8th), is 80% converting save opportunities (including 7-7 from the closer), and most of the bullpen has been outstanding. The thing I noticed after looking hard was that the days when the pitchers failed were almost universally either games where we either had even more offense than we gave up or where we barely scored anything and would've lost even with a decent pitching effort (exception: the 10-5 loss to the Rays when the 'pen gave up 8). The pitchers have given up runs in bunches, but if you ask me that's OK. Losing by 5 is no worse than losing by 2, and I'd rather the pitchers give up three more runs then than in the other games, which we've been winning by 1 or 2. It's also very worth noting that almost all of the starters are exhibiting a trend of improvement nearly every trip to the mound. This clearly won't continue forever, but it is a heck of a good sign.

Orioles Organizational Report 3: A Frederick

Fri, 11 Apr 2008 17:26:26 EDT

OK guys, here is finally what I promised on Monday. The third in my series of minor league reports, this one focusing on the A Frederick Keys. In this team is our greatest expression of the youth movement and bright future of our ballclub. Frederick is home to our single most anticipated young player (for now) surrounded by the most exciting group of prospects. I think I will seriously consider doing a minor league tour...they're all pretty close and figure to be exciting teams to watch. I'm not going to do the "categories' of player from this level on down, because realistically everyone this low in the organization is here with the idea of building for the future. Some will pan out and some will not.

Catchers: