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Tag:Pirates
Posted on: November 14, 2008 1:27 pm
Edited on: November 14, 2008 9:46 pm
 

Final thoughts on the upcoming Big East season

Now that every team has been previewed, it's time for me to collect my thoughts. This league is probably one of the toughest in history to predict, but I'm going to take a shot at it. First I'll arrange the teams by tiers, then I'll project the finish, and finally I'll have some thoughts on how the conference teams will do in the preseason tournaments. I had about 80% of this finished when my browser crashed before, so this is more hurried and probably has dropped in quality; apologies for that.

I believe that the nine-team-in projection is not at all far-fetched, and that as many as 12 might see some postseason play or other. It will all depend on nonconference performance and the new conference tourney format. I'm excited for the first Big East games tonight, starting at 7 PM, and can't wait for the season in general. Now, on to business...


Tiers of Teams

Stratifying the league even this way is difficult. There are four preseason title contenders, and I agree that they're the most likely winners, but I doubt they finish 1-4. The next groups of teams are hard to separate, with a lot of teams bearing hugely talented rosters and similar weak spots. Regardless, I think I have come up with a reasonable, though admittedly subjective, set of crieteria for differentiating what we've got. (Each tier is listed alphabetically)

Tier One:

Connecticut, Louisville

These teams have the best combination of talent, balance, and depth to be the clear-cut favorites. They aren't the only two who could win the league, but I'd be surprised if either finished outside the top 4.

Tier Two:

Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

These teams have a ton of returning talent, but lack either the balance (Pitt) or the depth (ND) to be favored over the above teams. The next group of teams could easily displace either of these, but I'd be surprised if either finished lower than sixth.

Tier Three:

Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia

Between tiers three and four is in my opinion the toughest place to draw a line. The distinction I drew is that these four teams I believe have the biggest chance to sneak into the top four, and would surprise me the most to finish out of the top half of the league.

Tier Four:

Georgetown, Providence

I believe one of these two teams will be left out of the Big Dance, and neither looks to me to have the talent to sneak into the top 4. Either one could surpass some of the teams in tier three, though, if things break the right way.

Tier Five:

Cincinnati, Rutgers, Seton Hall

These are the teams between NCAA rosters and terrible. I don't believe any is capable of squeezing into the top half of the league, but the one who puts together the best resume will probably land in the NIT. I think any of these could be competitive in some other conferences out there.

Tier Six:

DePaul, South Florida, St. John's

This is the dead weight. A 13th place finish would be a major victory for any of these three teams. I hate to be that harsh, but there's just no comparison between these rosters and most others in the Big East.



Projected Final Standings:

I'm not kidding when I say how hard this is. So before you flame me, homers, for having your team too low, remember that I've probably considered every legitimate argument your team has and decided that the others' have slightly more weight. Finishing tenth in this conference is not an insult...that team will be a very good one whether it's my pick or not. So before you say there's "no way" it could be your team, really consider the competition. I believe anyone but my top five could actually end up in the ten spot. OK, no more hedging, here's my order.

  1. Louisville (NCAA) They're my pick thanks to an easier schedule than the Huskies
  2. Connecticut (NCAA) They have the most talent, but a very rough road.
  3. Pittsburgh (NCAA) I pick them here largely because they get my next two teams at the Peterson Events Center, where they don't lose many games.
  4. Syracuse (NCAA) Someone will oust one of the "top four" and my pick is the Orange. I choose them because I believe they have the best combination of returning scorers and new talent from my "tier three" teams.
  5. Notre Dame (NCAA) I choose them to be bumped from the top four because I believe they are the least set up for the long haul. Their talent makes them capable of beating any team, but its concentration in two or three players makes them vulnerable.
  6. Villanova (NCAA) Experience wins my vote among some hard to separate squads.
  7. West Virginia (NCAA) The Mountaineers return more talent than most realize, and have an excellent recruiting class. They will have the best defense of several BE teams relying on forwards and no center up front.
  8. Marquette (NCAA) I hate to pick a team with this much talent this low, but teams 1-7 are that good.
  9. Providence (NCAA) They have the schedule to make something of a run, and more talent than you think.
  10. Georgetown (NIT) There. I did it. The Hoyas are reloading and I think it costs them. If they prove me wrong (higher than 8th place) I'll eat my crow.
  11. Seton Hall (NIT) I throw them up here largely because of Cincinnati's injuries, but also recognizing that here are some good pieces in place here.
  12. Cincinnati (CBI) They were going to be my surprise NCAA pick until they lost three players. Watch out for this team in 2009-2010
  13. Rutgers (none) They have enough players I like to keep them out of the bottom three.
  14. St. John's (none) Down at this level, experience is king, and they have grown together as a team and are well-coached.
  15. DePaul (none) I give them a slight edge over the Bulls.
  16. South Florida (none) I could really see a 1-17 conference record here, with a home win over DePaul.
So there it is. Teams 8 and 9, whether they are my picks or not, had better 1) excel in the ooc and 2) not flame out in the BE tournament. If that happens it will get the top 12 a chance to play in a postseason tournament. Of course, teams 9-12 had better win those opening round games, too...



The Big East in preseason tournaments

Connecticut - Paradise Jam
They get an opening round matchup with La Salle that should be an easy win. Anything short of winning this tournament would be something of a failure, but Miami, San Diego, and Wisconsin are all very dangerous. I'd most like to see the SD - UCONN matchup in the final. I'll say UCONN wins it, but it won't be easy.

Georgetown - Old Spice Classic
There' a very winnable opening round game against Wichita State, followed by a matchup with Siena or Tennessee. That second round game could be tough for the Hoyas to win. I think they face Tennessee (though Siena could surprise some folks) and lose. That would put them in the 3rd/5th place game with either Gonzaga or Michigan State, both games I think they would lose. With its 5th place finish, I think we will learn that Georgetown isn't a top 25 team just yet.

Notre Dame - Maui Invitational
OK, I have said that I think Indiana could stun Notre Dame in this opening round game for a number of reasons. Understand that that only means I give them about a 10% chance. Notre Dame should win that game. If they avoid that crazy upset, I believe they will defeat Texas and face UNC in the title game. Anything could happen there with Hansbrough out, or even with him playing 80%. This is an opportunity for the Big East to really flex a muscle early.

Pittsburgh - Legends Classic
This almost doesn't deserve mention, but it is a preseason tournament...Pittsburgh first hosts Akron and Indiana (PA) (Fairleigh Dickinson, though in the tournament, doesn't count as part of the tournament in tonight's game @ Pitt). If Pitt loses either of those...OK, let's not think about that, but even if they do they meet Texas Tech in the semifinal and then either Mississippi State or Washinton State in the final. If Pittsburgh doesn't win the thing it will be a major failure.

Providence - Anaheim Classic
This is to me one of the more intriguing preseason tournaments, as it is loaded with teams trying to sneak into the national discussion but no clear powerhouses. There will be no easy games for the Friars, but I'm going to say they knock off Baylor, Arizona State, and Wake Forest consecutively to take home the title and secure one heck of an ooc resume. I realize I'm out on a limb, but Providence is better than the attention they're getting, and I look for them to prove it in a big way.

Seton Hall - Puerto Rico Season Tip Off
The Pirates will be without transfer Robert Mitchell for this tournament, and because of that I think they lose to USC with little contest. I do think they can win the loser's bracket and capture fourth place, though, with Chattanooga and Missouri as the likely opponents.

St. John's - NIT Season Tip Off
Cornell is a better team than St. John's, so I will say the Red storm likely go home early. However, if they pull that upset, the next round against Boston College or Loyola (MD) is easier. Again, I expect one-and-done, but if they win the first they might just win two. I see very little chance of further advance than that.

Syracuse - CBE Classic
This is the same format as the Legends Classic but less of a joke. Syracuse has all but assured wins in LeMoyne and Richmond to get things going, followed by a tough smeifinal against Florida. I say that Syracuse gets it done, beating Florida and then the defending champs. I think Florida will be the tougher of the two games, but this is the Orange's Chance to say "we're here."



Roundup: So, I see four preseason tournament champions (Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Providence, and Syracuse), one runner-up (Notre Dame) and two top half finishes (Georgetown, Seton Hall) for the Big East. The lone one-and-done I suspect will be St. John's. 

Note tournaments that I couldn't find brackets for include: West Virginia and DePaul in the Las Vegas Invitational, Cincinnati in the Global Sports Classic, Villanova in the Philly Classic, Marquette in the Chicago Invitational Challenge, and South Florida in the San Juan Shootout.  Of those, the most important game I'm aware of is a WV-Kentucky matchup, which I'll go ahead and pick the Mountaineers to win.


So, there you have it, my complete opinion on Big East basketball '08-'09. Thanks to everyone who took the time to bother reading all this the last few weeks; I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I did putting it together. Let me know what you think, even if you think I'm an idiot, because I want to hear it! Also, check out the Second Annual year-long Big East thread for constant discussion of all relevant Big East topics. Go Big East!
Posted on: November 6, 2008 12:42 pm
 

Big East Preview 11, Seton Hall Pirates

I believe Seton Hall was a better team than they appeared last year.  They have a bit of talent.  It may be difficult for them to be anything more than "better than they appear" once again in 2008-2009.  They are typically an afterthought in the Big East conversation, perhaps especially this year.  Will they be able to make people regret that with some surprises?  Will they fade to the bottom of the pack, instead?  My thoughts may surprise you.
2007-2008
Results:

17-15 Overall, 7-11 Big East (11th)
Eliminated first round Big East tournament (Marquette)

Roster:

Larry Davis                G
Mike Davis                F/C
John Garcia              F/C
Paul Gause               G
Eugene Harvey         G
Jeremy Hazell           G
Brian Laing               G/F
Jamar Nutter              F
Augustine Okosun    G
Brandon Walters       F


2008-2009
Departures:

Larry Davis, Laing

Brian Laing is a huge loss for this team.  His 18.6 points and 6.9 rebounds per game had him in the conversation for BE player of the year.  Can anyone replace his production?  Davis is a different matter.  He played a lot of minutes, but they weren't terribly productive ones.

Arrivals:

Melvin Oliver            C
Jordan Theodore   G

That's the freshman class, and it isn't an impressive one.  It is not a good sign that the freshmen don't compare to most other Big East classes when the returning players finished 11th last season.

Robert Mitchell     F (transfer from Duquesne)  Here is the solid addition to this year's team.  He sat out 07-08 as a transfer, but his numbers at Duquesne were very good.  He could add a lot of what was lost with Laing's graduation.  The Big East should watch out for him.

Herb Pope             F (transfer from New Mexico State)
Keon Lawrence    G (transfer from Missouri)

This is a pair of talented but troubled players.  I believe both will have to sit out 2008-2009, but if anyone has information to the contrary please let me know.

The Schedule:

Nonconference Games
:   St. Francis (NY), Columbia, USC (Peurto Rico Tipoff, other possible oponents include: Chatanooga, Memphis, Fairfield, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Xavier), Delaware, Monmouth, California Baptist, St. Peter's, IUPUI, James Madison, Fairleigh Dickinson

They shouldn't lose any games other than the Peurto Rico Tipoff, which features 3, maybe 4 teams better than them.  If they can make a strong showing in that tournament, it might make a difference come season's end.

Two Time Opponents
:  Connecticut, St. John's, Rutgers

Four of those six games are very winnable, and the Pirates likely want revenge for last year's loss to Rutgers.

Remaining Roadies:  Syracuse, Notre Dame, DePaul, Marquette, Louisville, Cincinnati

Seton Hall had better perform well at home, because in this third of the BE schedule I see only one game they should win.

Home Games: West Virginia, Villanova, Providence, Georgetown, South Florida, Pittsburgh

Not an easy slate by any means.
The Outlook

Best Case Scenario:
      The five leading scorers, after Laing, that return all add a few points to their averages by virtue of some extra minutes.  Robert Mitchell steps in to Big East play the way he left A-10 play, and contributes 15 or more per game.  While they struggle on the boards, they distribute the ball well enough to win all the ooc games they should.  They stun USC in the Puerto Rico tip off, and finish third there behind Memphis and Xavier.  They take four BE games against St. John's and Rutgers, two more on the road, and two more at home.  That 8-8 record is enough for a top half finish, and an NCAA invite.

Worst Case Scenario
:
     Mitchell can't quite translate his game to the Big East.  No real leader emerges, and while the returning players improve it just isn't enough.  They get nailed in the tipoff tournament, and lose a couple early games that they really shouldn't.  The Big East is too much for them, and they only manage to split against the easier repeat opponents, and add one home and one road win. The resultant low seed in the Big East tournament means another loss and an end to their season.

My Take:
     A lot of people will probably write this team off completely with the loss of Brian Laing.  That will be felt, but I'm not ready to dismiss them as irrelevant just yet.  Honestly, with the transfer of Mitchell, I think this team will have about the same amount of talent as last season.  He isn't Laing, but the combination of his insertion into the lineup and the improvement of the many returning players should just about equal the production lost from Laing.  They underperformed last year, so if they play to their potential this year they could play in the postseason.  They aren't quite NCAA worthy, but they will likely battle it out with Cincinnati and Rutgers for 11th place...and could even sneak into 10th if anyone "above" them has a disappointing year.  If they do so, and beat a bottom feeder in the first round of the BE tourney, they could garner an NIT invite.
Category: NCAAB
 
 
 
 
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